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saturday, 14 october 2017 gw8 fantasyfootballcloud.com team very quick post i'm afraid, to update site team for posterity. key transfers this week over at fantasyfootbalcloud.com are firmino to vardy and mkhitaryan to sterling so without any great thought 2ft used and the site team follows suit. should have been silva really based on the top players rating but just couldn't afford that - the team was started late (gw3) so missed out on some important price changes. still... looking good. kane (c) of course and some questions could be asked regarding bench and bench order but it'll do. good luck, folks! posted by @shots_on_target no comments: friday, 29 september 2017 gw7 fantasy football cloud team first up this is the unlimited budget "best bunch of 11 players" according to the top player ratings at fantasyfootballcloud.com i am working on an algorithm which will compare a given fpl team to the optimum one, give your team a rating, and offer best way (transfer) to improve the rating within budget. but in this post i'l try and work the algorithm manually :) so the current ffcloud site team before transfers looks like this with 2ft and 1.5 itb... not too shabby but far from perfect. the team has a rating of 327 (just first xi) compared to the very best team (the first image) which scores 350, the big differences being firmino and brady instead of morata and salah, which would pretty much blow the budget to pieces. one option would be to shift firmino for morata, selling lowe to mbemba to raise money. this would bump the rating up by 14 to 341. a "better" move however would be to do a straight switch from lowe to kolasanic, an increase of 17 and only using 1ft. hmmm... so that's the transfer then and team for gw7 is below! looking at the ratings in general has led me to consider the "worth" of a player to your team. for example, if tom carroll is in 47/50 top manager's squads and kane in just 42/50 does that make carroll the better player for your team? of course not. so i have some ideas and will be developing the ratings in this direction over the international break. good luck, folks. posted by @shots_on_target no comments: friday, 22 september 2017 gw6 team fantasy football cloud here's the fantasyfootballcloud.com site team for gameweek 6. there's no sergio aguero . after a massive surge on sunday/monday it's now looking unlikely his ranking in my "top players" bit will eclipse kane or lukaku, or even firminio for that matter, and thus he does not make the team. to be honest, it's close, and with 10 out of 50 wcs active this week he could well edge it over kane. matt ritchie has seen a fair no. of transfers in, as have david silva and sead kolasanic . the transfer that would best align the site team with the top player ratings as they are right now would be atsu out for ritchie, increasing the overall "rating" of the team by 9. however, atsu could well be a wc target and it's not a clear transfer, so - reading between the lines a little - i will hold the transfer this week in order to make a better move next. i will also hold my breath when city play palace! kane is the captain as he is best placed in the various polls. i've picked carroll to start based on his almost ubiquitous presence in top managers team hence he's likely for selection this week (plus is an okay fpl player for what he is). best of luck! posted by @shots_on_target no comments: friday, 15 september 2017 gw5 fantasy football cloud team quick post to share the gw5 team. at a bit of a disadvantage due to starting late and missing some price rises on eriksen, mkhi and the like so have taken a 4 point hit. as mentioned last week , the policy for this team is to keep it aligned with my "top player" ratings at fantasyfootballcloud.com , which are in turn based on the teams of best career fpl managers out there (e.g. hof). the key transfer to make this week is ben davies so in he comes, for bertrand. willian was sacrificed and so also new to the team is robbie brady. he was the highest rated player in that low to mid-price bracket. atsu looks like a problem but there is money to spend if required on a player like maxim choting (who has seen some transfers in this week). kane (c)! good luck!!! posted by @shots_on_target no comments: tuesday, 5 september 2017 fantasy football cloud fpl team hello folks, long time no see. i have not been away, just behind the curtain and wanted to first quickly share with you my new site fantasy football cloud . one of the things on the site i am most excited about is the "top players" section. this is based on the squads of the best fantasy football managers ever - or at least over the last 5 seasons. similar to what ffgeek does in his weekly post analysing the teams of thetop 10 fpl managers , i gather team data from the 50 managers with the best record i can find over the last 5 seasons and aggregate this into players ratings. i started doing this around the gw21 mark last season and basically the team could do no wrong. consistently, week after week after week, it got a green arrow. so i am excited about it. based on these rating i have just entered an aggregate team into fpl (just now) and that actually is the main point of posting today. admittedly at a slight handicap due to missed price rises but i can't help that now so let's see how she does. if you head over to the site you'll see the the top players section is organised into a rough team structure via position and price bracket. there also the "team" option so i've tried to follow that with the team i have entered. captaincy will be based on the polls. anyway, enough rattle, here is the team. let us see how she fares! posted by @shots_on_target no comments: sunday, 23 november 2014 probability of a goal from expected goal data this is a post to share a thing that might be a new way of using expected goal data. rather than adding up the individual shot probabilities to get a summed total (a.k.a. expected goals) we can use the xg values of each individual shot in a match to work out the probability of a team scoring in that game. this uses the idea of shot quality or chance quality, and that less quantity (shots) and more quality (per shot, aka xg) is a good thing. sometimes less is more. i dabbled with this idea about a year ago in this post about manchester united's 2012/13 season . in this i presupposed that united's exceptional shot quality that season was a possible explanation for them scoring considerably more goals than their expected goal total alone would suggest. presuppose. possibly. yeah. the method was a bit of a fudge and from further testing/dabbling didn't go anywhere. early this year mark taylor took a much better swipe at the idea with his post twelve shots good, two shots better , where he demonstrated by simulation that team a attempting 2 big chances on goal (xg = 2 * 0.60) would beat team b who took 12 lesser chances (xg = 12 * 0.10). both teams have the same total goal expectation from the game (1.20) but from his simulation team a wins out in 37% of the simulated games versus team b's 32%. here's my method for calculating probability of a goal (pg) using a team's individual shot/xg data. for each fixture take the xg values for each individual shot and then determine the probability the team do not score at all from any of those shots.then subtract this from 1. pg = 1 - [(1-xg1)*(1-xg2) *...* (1-xgn)] this is the probability that a team will score 1 goal or more in a match having take n shots, with each shot having an individual probability of xgn. to the results, or i should say the differences between expected goals and the freshly calculated 'probability of a goal', pg. i'm cautious to say "results" as xg has been well tested and proven to be decent, whereas pg hasn't and is new, to me at least, and will need much more testing and stuffs. as you'll see from the chart though there are some significant differences between these two values even though they are determined

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http://www.shotsontarget.co.uk/2014/05/defensive-errors-in-football.html
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shotsontarget.co.uk

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